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As expected in the Thanksgiving Early Prop Bet Lines piece, all the lines for PERFECT PROP BET type lines will fly, Dak’s lowest passing prop line has moved up 10 yards since the post, and it is not even Thanksgiving NFL Morning yet
Let’s look around the NFL Prop betting Landscape to locate the best values and take cues from the market of what’s to come
Dak Prescott Passing – over 265.5
if you did not get in on the line yesterday in the 250s, there are only two places to get Dak over passing at FanDuel or FoxBet who are offering industry passing props at over 265.5. Other sportsbook have this number as high as 278 and it will likely get into 280 on holiday morning. If it gets to 280’s might be time to consider buying some back , and shorting at 290s
David Montgomery number at 75.5 Rushing yards still has some value at Fanduel.
Buffalo Bills rushing combo
Moss and Singletary are both projected to rush for 30 or more yards, Moss best line at Caesars is 21.5 and Singletary 23.5 at Fanduel, these lines will likely move, no matter the workload reduction, high usage players having low 20s for rushing bets is just too low
Shop Zeke Value
Elliot is projected to rush for 74 yards, his over yardage lines are already on the move with the lowest one being on Draftkings available 60.5 -110.
Huge hap openned up on Zeke Rushing + Receiving prop, Draftkings offering up 82.5 , while the rest of the industry is at 89 or higher, massive value in DK line
Many of these NFL prop lines will be on the move, and if you find yourself chasing them before the kickoff will have to pay up for line 10yards higher in some case
Derek Carr Passing O260.5
This line is already on the move at all sportsbooks trading above 260 now. With projectiong still well higher than the nuber you can find 260.5s at FoxBet and Pointbet, with the rest of the betting world pricing this at 266.5 before for a number that will surely end in the 270s.
MOVERS:
Lines that are too close to call for perfectbet , but are and will keep getting the money to the upside, lets look at who is slower to price up:
Deonte Harris receiving, is slow to adjust up at 32.5 , bearish position can be taken at 36.5 Fanduel
Josh Allen Rushing props are going wild at FoxBet with 35.5, only 31.5 at BarStool
Still waiting for more Lions news, while Swift has been great, his line is likely to get up too high into the 70s for any bullish bets and will have to look to short around kick off time
Keep an eye on @findprops handle for all the time sensitive NFL and NBA Player betting values.
Some uncertainty with injuries and news, but sportsbooks are starting to put up some lines for what is going to be a massive betting slate on Thanksgiving with games of questionable excitement. Lets try to identify early lines that will almost certainly move by kickoff and find some PERFECT PROP BET types
Montgomery of 76.5 Rushing yard -115 at Caesars
Favorable game script and increasing work load., projection of 92 yards and market already moving up.
DAK Attack
Dak is projected to pass for 285 yards and you can get his passing line at 258 passing yards at FanDuel currently. Big name QB line on island holiday game will get A LOT of money. Dak passing TD can be had at Fanduel +110 and PointsBet +105. Those are not going to stay+ money for many more hours.
Renfrow O50.5 Receiving on FoxBet
projected into mid 60s, will get plenty of targets, potentially good game flow
Zeke Elliott O60.5 rushing on FanDuel and FoxBet
Projected for 74 Rushing yards, Big name , huge contract , lots of money of money will be pushing this prop up , get it now if you agree with projection.
No moneyback guarantee on all these, but when big sites wake up and push the overs on these props at 5 yards higher, it will be nice to have some free yards. And if gaps are too huge, can buy some back for middle opportunities.
Knicks starters have been absolutely dreadful, yielding more minutes to the bench mob. Despite the struggles Randle is still leading the team in potential assists by a wide margin with 11.2 over last 5, averaging 5.0 and is projected for 5.2
Seems like buy low spot on Randle’s asst prop that used to be approaching 6.5 just a few games ago.
Julius Randle o4.5A -102 FanDuel
FanDuel is offering lowest price at 30 cents discount to the rest of the industry even money
Looking for Randle to get back on track against short handed Lakers
#NBATwitter is a VERY wild place, so join it carefully, but it definitely spices up the viewing and betting experience as you get to live through the emotions and absolute madness of NBA Twitter.
You can also follow individual team hashtags to catch the latest on happening of the team, sometimes you can pick up the edge for betting or build list of like minded NBA fans to follow
Lucky guess last night in MNF Prop Bets – Giants Passing Attack – Week 11 that all the 5 listed prob bets will get action and will be on the move , 12-16 hours later all the big site touts around the web have started pumping them and there has been about 50 total yards of movement. One hour to go until lock: Lets look at the best available props
BetRivers really low on Caris LeVert points today offering line all the way down at 14.5, if you are bullish on Caris, take the over there. #CaesarsSportsbook and #DraftKings have that line all the way up at 16.5
Always shop for best line, massive spread like 2 points on point prop is huge in sports as projectable as NBA
NBA Rebound Leader Rudy Gobert very undervalued at Caesars sportsbook offering a line of only 12.5 rebound. Gobert is projected to well exceed the line and the rest of the sportbetting market agree, the line is 13.5 everywhere else
Incredible Todd Cordell on twitter, with proven track record of crushing SOG and overall NHL has following NHL shot on goal prop thoughts for today , as always , shop around:
Thomas Chabot O2.5 (+100)
• Chabot averages 6.2 attempts per game • Leads the Sens in attempts by 21 • Plays more than 27 minutes per game • Skates on PP1; Colorado ranks 29th in attempts against/60 while on PK
Oliver Bjorkstrand O2.5 (-118)
• Averages 6.26 attempts, 3.13 SOG per game • Facing BUF team bottom-10 in attempts against/60 over last 5 • Sabres playing 3rd game in 4 nights
Zach Werenski O2.5 (-125)
• Leads Blue Jackets in attempts, SOG • As mentioned with Bjorkstrand, in a good matchup vs tired BUF side • Has 3+ SOG in nine straight
Cale Makar O2.5 (+119)
• Averaging 7 attempts, 3 SOG per game since Nathan MacKinnon went down • Senators rank 32nd in attempts against/60 over last 10 • Just dealt with COVID outbreak, now playing on road at altitude
Brandon Saad O2.5 (+108)
• Averaging 3.5 SOG per game on home soil • Has gone over number in 6 of last 8 • Depleted VGK team still allowing shots at high clip
Evgenii Dadonov O2.5 (+130)
– Featured on L1, PP1 • Leads VGK forwards in attempts, SOG over last 10 games • Has gone over number in 5 straight
Troy Terry O2.5 (+130)
• Terry averaging 4.9 attempts, 3.1 SOG over last 10 • Has 3+ SOG in 7 of 8 • Prominent shooter on PP; Nashville among most undisciplined teams in the NHL
Great selection of SOG props for a busy NFL and NBA betting night
Buddy Hield performance has been up and down of late causing confusion in how to price him in the prop markets, you can now get buddy Points Asissts and Rebound props on
Early #NBA75#Propbets Over favorites: Hayward o2.5A #FanDuel -140, rest of the industry -170 or higher number. 3.8 assists on 6.6potential assists last 5games.
Murray o6.5A +100 #CaesarsSportsbook projects over 8a, rest of the industry at least 30c higher. #sportsbettingpicks
These are best value lines where projections, market and past performance all projected to go over, if wanting to get the under on those prop bets, waiting till near start of the game will be able to get best numbers
