Diontae Johnson of #SteelersNation Big prop line discrepancy: Best over at FoxBet o65.5 Best under at #BarstoolSportsbook 72.5 Projection is 71 yards… over or under , pick your sportsbook accordingly
ProppyBo_24
Sunday November 21 NHL Shot Props
As fun as NFL betting is on a Sunday, some of the best lines to attack are NBA and NHL shot prob bets where sportsbooks are more relaxed in their line setting
Many good opportunities to attack shot props from the great Todd Cordell very under followed twitter account
Adrian Kempe O2.5 (-111)
• Kempe is averaging 6.5 attempts, 3.6 SOG over L10
• Kempe has been skating on L1 and PP1
• Is primary shooter on PP against ARI team that gives up a ton of shots on the PK
Brock Boeser O2.5 (-105)
• Is averaging 5.2 attempts, 2.8 SOG over L10
• Chicago ranks 29th in attempts against/60 over L10
• Pace-up spot against bad team in latter half of B2B
• With VAN splitting best players up, should get soft matchups against top-heavy team
Bo Horvat O2.5 (+120)
• Has multiple shots in all but one game this season; always in the mix
• As mentioned w/ Boeser, Horvat is in a pace-up spot against a fatigued team that bleeds shots
• Simply put, I see too much value on this line. Should be ~EV.
Jaden Schwartz O2.5 (+104)
• Averaging 5.9 attempts, 3.6 SOG over L10
• Has established himself as SEA’s primary shooter
• Has 3+ SOG in 7 of 9
• Generates significantly more shots at home, where he gets put in more favorable situations
• WSH banged up, in road B2B
Jeff Skinner (-123)
• Averaging 3.3 SOG over L10
• Has gone over number in 4 of 5
• Rangers playing unfathomably bad defense; allowing league-leading 66 attempts/60 over L10
As always shop around for the best sportsbooks for NHL shot prop line best price. On Sundays many line traders are sleeping and attending to their massive NFL Sunday handle so value can be found on NHL and NBA Props
Good Luck!
Week 11 NFL Breakfast Props
Good Morning, as NFL inactives are pouring in , it is time for another wild NFL betting week. Let look at some player props to target this morning
Alex Collins over 48.5 Rushing on FanDuel
Seahawks Collins is projected to handle a larger role in the backfield and all the the number has moved well past 50 at most books with projection in high 60s of rushing yards.
TY Hilton o 2.5rec -128 on FanDuel
TY is getting healthier and should get 3+ catches in the game, FanDuel is the lowest on this reception props in the industry, big relative value here
Have a good and profitable NFL betting week! Check many of yesterday’s NFL Props posted, should have near a dozen.
Week 11 NFL Prop Betting Preview – Sunday Eve
Yesterday’s player prop lines that will be on the move, featuring Tua Passing Prop Value and Week 11 FanDuel NFL RB Prop Value, now moved by 10+ yards at some sportsbooks.
Some bigger sports betting tout sites are just now starting to publish Tua and RB player props now after the lines have moved.
Let’s look around the NFL price shopping for best bets vs projections and overall betting market. Save some yards, juice t0 maximize chances of winning
Carson Wentz Over 219.5 on Draftkings and Caesars
Passing yard prop lin is 27 yards below his projection , other sportsbooks are indicating lines higher as much as by 12 yards. Game script is also potentially favorable for QB.
Jalen Hurst over 205.5 pass yds on FoxBet
Both projections and other sportsbooks are indicating him going over the number
Kirk Cousins UNDER 268.4 at Caesars and Draftkings
Money is flowing in on the under and can be found as much as 10 yards below this line and his passing prop is projected almost 30 yards lower. Green bays improved defense and slower game pace figures into this.
BONUS: Biggest Position Player prop movers:
AJ BROWN OVER 70.5 REC YDS- projected for massive receiving day of almost 100 receiving yards, his rec prop is still lagging at 70.5 at FoxBet and PointsBet with some books already approaching 80
Good luck in betting your favorite props for NFL week 11!
Jalen Green with increased usage opportunity
Kevin Porter has been ruled out, meaning more ball handling duties for Jalen Green, some books have already reacted, but Draftkings and BetRivers are still offering his PAR totals down at 20.5 PAR prop. If you think the rookie will continue to struggle you can wait closer to game time and probably get the under in 23-24.5 range.
Classic extra usage usage without adjustment in line prop betting opportunity
Cole Anthony Assist Props way too low
Cole has been spectacular averaging 8.8 assists on 16 potential assists in the last 4 games, while is not very favorable tonight, setting his assist prop at only 4.5 near even money seems too low.
Tobias Harris looking to end slump
Tobias Harris has had a few rough performances after a bout with covid, tonight he gets another chance to attack his betting props. He is projected for ~33 PAR with Draftkings and Ceasaras hangins 30.5 PAR number. If you are looking to trend with the unders, Fanduel PAR number can be had as high as under 32.5
De’Aaron Fox Assists Line Too Low
All Major US sportsbooks are pricing starting PG De’Aaron Fox Asisst prop all the way down at 4.5. While the juice is -150 at Fanduel, William Hill and PointsBet, the line is simply too good to pass up. Sacramanento has been paying poorly costing Fox some minutes and not making enough shots on his potential dimes
13.2 potential assists and averaging 5.6 actual assists over the last 5 games is just too many to have the line down at 4.5 it will surely move up
Grab it this prop bet while you can
Early Prop Betting Research
Yesterday following along some key strategies from Basic Player Prop Betting Strategies we spotted Tua Passing Prop Value opportunity to maximize chances of getting on the best player prop value on the board according to research/projections
In the morning lowest line was up to 254.5 , 9 yard savings , and probably more for the late Sunday morning crowd,
Follow and subscribe for more live execution of prop betting strategies that can make difference in hundreds of units
Tua Passing Prop Value
Tua Tagovailoa passing yardage is projected at 277 yards, while most books are already offering bets in mid to high 250s , great value for over bettors is still available at FoxBet. Passing prop at FoxBet is still only 245.5, the line is likely to touch 260s by Sunday morning at most sportsbooks
Week 11 FanDuel NFL RB Prop Value
Another spicy NFL week coming up, more big opportunities for the following RBs, Fanduel is discounting these lines by 8-10 yards vs industry competition:
D’Onta Foreman Over 51.5 rushing yards -114
Mark Ingram Over 49.5 rushing yards -108
Dalvin Cook Over Rush & Rec total Over 100.5 -114
Fanduel NFL props have had a good run of taking money of over bettors, but having lines lower yards lower than the rest of the industry might be worth taking a stab at for bettors bullish on above players
Basic Player Prop Betting Strategies
Betting player props is one of the best ways to enjoy the game. However, jamming the over on biggest name players when their stats got bid up to high number with heavy juice is not the way, that’s betting pattern is how beautiful Las Vegas buildings with sportsbooks are built.
Casually betting props is absolutely fine, but savings of 2 quarterback passing yards, 15 cents of juice or half an assist , touchdown can make a difference between being profitable over the long run or repeatedly smashing re-deposit button.
Below are some tips with examples of analysis posted just today before game that gave advantage that if multiplied by thousands of bets would make massive difference (no need to brag that they were all winners)
Use Multiple Sportsbooks for Betting Player Props
Multiple Sportsbooks will allow you access to higher amount of player prop wagering options to find the best prop line and price. Sportsbook also have many promotions: free bets, deposit bonuses, odds boosts, money back and even perks at your nearby casino locations.
Today’s two examples: Tim Hardaway a rebounder! and Bjelica the PG? listed Hardaway rebound market leading by 36 cents in some books, and Bjelica assist under had 60 cent advantage. Between just those two bets 100 cents or one whole bet were saved. Using multiple sportsbooks and selecting ones with 30-60 cent price advantage would allow user to massive 300-500 extra bets using the same amount of money.
Research Prop Wagers Early
It is not unusual for NFL player passing yard props to move as much as 20 yards, or NBA payer point + rebound + assist prop to move by 3. Big line moves are especially common in island or prime time games where all eyes are on the same “obvious” plays.
Especially in modern NBA , players commonly rest or are held back due to injuries.
Example: DURANT OUT! Hurry to get some props in – Durant was dealing with some injuries and was likely to sit. BKN was likely to be cautious of KD and rest him, that would thrust other players into larger usage positions against a weak opponent. Sure enough he was ruled out , Harden line jumped by 5 points and he went over.
Shop for the Best Line
Jalen Brunson back in big role – With Luca Doncic missing the game, Brunsons was biggest beneficiary, some books were offering a line that was 3 PAR lower than others, massive difference for NBA
Be Online for Player News
Hard working sports companies post near real-time updates of latest player news which significantly impact player prop betting lines. https://twitter.com/findprops and other accounts provide you with most recent player bet analysis.
New Role / Old Line
With many rest, injury and role changes throughout the season, players are often put into new rules and lines are slow to adjust, for instance Can Cade Cunningham stay hot? Sportsbooks had little data on the rookie: off to cold start , initially paying off ball, tough opponents and sportsbooks didnt have enough information on how to handicap rookie player. That has caused his line to be a little low at some books.
Combine Prop Betting Strategies
Early Shopping for the best line, on players with new roles and potential favorable rest/matchup scenarios can lead to much more enjoyable player prop wagering experience