NFL Primetime games usually follow the same prop bet lifetime arc. We will break down and look at all the stages of and how to bet them for the overs and unders to make betting experience more profitable and save several yards a play while you are at it.
The bigger and more isolated the game is, the more violent price movement are on the prop betting arc. Island games include:
- SUPERBOWL
- PLAYOFF games
- Monday night football
- Thursday night football
- Sunday night football
- Early Sunday football games
Island Game Prop Bet Life
Post
Sportsbook odds providers post the props. Some book post theirs week in advance, others wait for absolute latest news and betting markets to mature. Early posting books is the first place you want to attack if you have your own projections or NFL player projections from a source you trust.
Information Stage
All bookmakers have their Primetime player prop bet lines at this point. Analysts have had the time to take more variables into their research and make their betting recommendations. Naturally, good sports betting analysts have higher following and money behind them. Without knowing anything about NFL it is possible to take a look at prop betting markets and see the bets that are drawing attention. Run popular player pro bets through additional stage of analysis vs projections to determine if they are worth while considering. This is usually the stage where we post slate analysis looking for PERFECT PROP BET
Most bettors do not like having their money tied up days in advance, most likely not even one slate in advance. So by shopping for best line it is still possible to get close to get close to original line at some sportsbooks. Except now you are buying that line having more market conviction behind it thanks to market and analysis backing the plays.
Jam Them In Betting Stage
Now comes the late money from combination of these NFL Primetime bettors:
- Bets finalized from 4pm slate to jam bets in to prime time slate no matter the price or line
- Casual fans who know the big names and “Popular QB is going to play well for this team, means hit the over”, of course, no care for the fact that line has moved 30 yards and on top of that will cost extra 20 cents to bet the over
- Lets hang out at the casino then go place some bets and watch the games types
- Uncles at Thanksgiving asking you what it is you are doing, download the app, not understanding what $5000 free bet means, and jamming it in on the biggest name they can find, on the over of course. Or maybe they are savvy and they research finding one of the pieces that was on the player we discovered in information stage.
NFL Primetime Game Betting – Kick Off
Except in this stage NFL stands for No Fun League. The bigger the game – the more money has been bet on all the “obvious” props as daily fantasy and betting communities has declared. Most money is always on the overs in these island games.
Problem with over bets, well besides the fact that they are losing from the start and have to “get there”, there have many risks built in:
- Injuries
- Coaching Decisions
- Game Flow
- Big penalties – couple big PI plays? Good luck with your skill player overs
2021-2022 Season first 11 weeks prime time games have featured some bad teams and terrible unappealing ugly games. Some weeks had closing line big mover prop bet unders hitting at over 61% some weeks. That is a devastating number for “Jam them in ” stage bettors, especially when considering lots of these over odds are shaded to the upside.
Unfortunately for the most popular bets, while overs are fun to root for, truth is, betting all the unders on qualified wagers is much more profitable over time.
Line shopping is always important, but especially at the late stages of prop life cycle.
To Maximize the addicting fun of rooting for the overs, it is important to locate the PERFECT PROP BETs during the information stage.
Good Luck!