No matter how many emojis your handicapper or sports betting tout posts, there is only one type of perfect prop bet:
FREE BET you get from one of your sports book promotions.
To have as close to “perfect prop bet” as possible, we are looking around sports betting and analysis landscape to check most of the following:
Prop Line vs Projection Gap
The larger the gap between player projection and the player prop line. If QB is projected to pass for 278 yards, but his prop line is o228.5 -110, you will obviously start building the case for the over
Player Performance and Match up
If player is averaging 6 assists per game , is projected for the usual work load and the line is at 4.5 assists. Another check mark for building the case for the prop bet.
Market Value / Line Shopping
It is not uncommon for quarterback passing prop to be different by 10-15 yards at different sportsbooks, sometimes you see 3 point+rebound+assist for NBA player. Obviously you want to grab the most favorable line at sportsbook. You also want to read the other market price as information, if most books are upping the line and the odds/juice, but you have line sitting at original price – time to research cause for market move.
High usage , bad performance
If a running back is getting 20 rusher a game and faced some terrible game flow scenarios; point guard dished out 20 potential assists that resulted in only 4 assists; player was in foul trouble and blowouts for couple games; player determined to shoot 20 times a game just hasn’t made shots recently. Bad or below expectation performances can severely compress the propbet lines allowing for great opportunities.
UNknown, but KNOWN
Usually happens during start of new season when roles are unclear. But if #1 draft pick had a couple off nights on massive usage the first night, and the props have been severely lowered. Chances are worst team in the NBA isnt benching or limiting their #1 Pick.
There are scenarios where NBA Player is likely to rest, in 2021 Season Westbrook rested on the back end of the back to back games, but the sportsbooks prices Beal and other players as if he was in, until official ruling on game day.
Perfect prop bets lose all the time, and terrible ill-advised bets can win, but to maximize chances of long terms success seeking “Perfect Prop Bets” is the way.